Post Tagged with: "stock index futures"

Market Seasonality Study

November 28, 2016 5:00 am8 comments

November is almost over and it’s often stated that November is the start of a historically strong period for the U.S. markets. This is a well known seasonality period which runs from November to May. Look back, it sure seems true this time around. In this article I would like to take a closer look at the seasonality bias which so many investors and traders talk about.  Seasonality Bias First, I would like to test the popular trading idea of buying the S&P in November and selling in May. I will test this on the cash market going back to 1983. The number of shares to buy will be adjusted based upon a fixed amount of risk. In this case, $5,000 is risked per […]

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The Double Seven Strategy

October 10, 2016 5:00 am4 comments

It’s time to look at another simple trading system which can be found in the book, ”Short Term Trading Strategies That Work” by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. In this article we are going to look at the Double 7 strategy. This is a simple strategy that can be applied to the major market indices such as DIA, DOW and QQQ. It can also be applied to the futures markets. The rules of this system are very simple. The instrument must be above its 200 day moving average. If the instrument closes at a 7-day low – buy. If a long position is open and the instrument closes at a 7-day high – sell. The trading system follows two basic concepts we have talked a lot about on this […]

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Better To Buy Strength or Weakness?

October 3, 2016 5:00 am4 comments

Emotionally it’s a lot easier to buy on strength than to buy on weakness. Buying into a falling market feels unnatural. Your instincts warn that price may continue to fall resulting in lost capital. On the other hand buying when the market makes new highs feels more natural. Price is moving in your direction and the sky is the limit! However, with so many other aspects of trading what feels natural or easy is often the opposite of what you should be doing. Trading psychology can make or break not only your mental state-of-mind but your trading account. In this post I’m going to compare these two different trading strategies on the S&P E-mini futures market and see which one produces better […]

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Two Dimensional Market Environment Filter

September 5, 2016 5:00 am13 comments

In this article I’m going to demonstrate a technique to help adapt your trading systems to the changing market conditions. In a previous article entitled, “Trend Testing Indicators“, I tested several indicators that could be used to divide the market into two modes: bullish and bearish. These two modes were then used to dictate how the trading system should execute its trades. For example, during a bull mode only open long trades. During a bear mode only open short trades. In essence, we made our system adapt to the given market conditions. However, we can take this concept further by looking at a different market characteristic: trend strength. A market may be in a bull regime, but how strong is […]

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Top Five Most Popular Articles From 2015

January 4, 2016 5:00 am0 comments

Happy New Year system traders! With the new year it’s time to take a look back at 2015 and highlight the top five most popular articles. These articles all provide great material to help you in your systematic trading. Did you miss any of these articles? If so, now is your chance to review this popular material and see where it might fit into your system development process. I determined the top five articles based upon the number of views the article received. So let’s get going by starting with the 5th most popular article for 2015… Number 5 Connors 2-Period RSI Update For 2014 Once again the simple 2-period RSI trading models popularized by the book, “Short Term Trading Strategies […]

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A Complementary Approach To Trading Technical Indicators

October 26, 2015 5:00 am5 comments

In the October issue of Futures magazine author Jean Folger discusses an important aspect when selecting two or more indicators when developing a trading system. While I don’t recommend simply combining indicators to create a trading system, and I don’t think that’s what Folger is suggesting either, when there comes a time to introduce two or more technical indicators to a trading system, this is when Folger’s advice is relevant. The author highlights a common mistake when selecting two or more indicators that could really hinder the performance of your system. By following Folder’s advice you can multiply the effectiveness of your system by selecting two or more indicators when done properly. Types of Indicators When it comes to technical indicators we are talking about mathematical formulas that are applied to price or volume. These technical indicators include MACD, Moving Averages, […]

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Improving The Simple Gap Strategy Part 3

July 13, 2015 5:00 am14 comments

In the last article in this series, Improving The Simple Gap Strategy Part 2, I tested two filters on the OOS sample data. The first filter was a day-of-week (DOW) filter which did not produce decent results.  The second filter, Gap Size, did show promising results. Reviewing my notes from years ago, I also discovered that the size of the gap will play an important factor in the success of many gap strategies. So, this was not a surprise. It was something I should have recalled, but it was worth testing again. In this article I’m going to test a another idea. At the conclusion of this article you will find the free EasyLanguage code for this strategy. Testing Environment Because I’m currently testing and developing […]

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Connors 2-Period RSI Update For 2014

January 5, 2015 5:00 am20 comments

With the year 2015 only being a few days old, it’s time to look at the very popular 2-period RSI trading method by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. We all know there are no magic indicators but there is an indicator that certainly acted like magic over several decades. What indicator is it? Our reliable RSI indicator. The modified 2-period RSI trading model makes new highs in 2014. Click To Tweet Over the past few years the standard 2-period trading model as defined in the book, “Short Term Trading Strategies That Work“, has been in a drawdown. During 2011 the market experienced a sudden and sustained drop which put the trading model into loss. Recall, the trading model had no stops. Since this drop the model has […]

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Most Popular Articles For 2014

December 29, 2014 5:00 am0 comments

mzns the year winds down, it’s time to take a look at the top five most popular articles for 2014. I determined the top five articles based upon the number of views the article received. So let’s get going by starting with the 5th most popular article for 2014… Number 5 RSI And How To Profit From It This is a popular article as it was written back in 2012. It demonstrates two very simple trading models to trade the S&P buy being into short-term weakness. This article was updated in 2013 which also made it to this list (see below). But we are due for an update in 2015 as many people will be wondering how this trading model did […]

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A Simple S&P System

August 25, 2014 5:00 am9 comments

Last week’s article, Trading Ideas And Systems: Keep It Simple, Smart Guy, highlighted the virtues of building simple trading systems. Simple trading systems have a lot of advantages namely, being robust. In this article I want to provide the EasyLanguage code for the concept provided in the orginal article. It’s a fine example of following the keep-it-simple mantra and just might inspire you to create a profitable system. Simple S&P Futures System The first system is based upon the concept provided in last week’s article. The rules are provided below. System Rules If today’s close is less than the close 6 days ago, buy (enter long). If today’s close is greater than the close 6 days ago, sell (exit long). […]

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