Over the years I’ve looked at several very simple long strategies that were published in the book, “Short Term Trading Strategies That Work” by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. Those articles include the following long strategies:
Buried within Connors and Alvarez’s book you will find one simple shorting strategy which can be used on the major market indices. In this article I will review this strategy and also combine it with the Double Shorting strategy we explored last week.
Simple Shorting Strategy
- The instrument must be below its 200 day moving average.
- If the instrument closes up for four or more days in a row, sell short at close.
- Cover your position when price closes below a 5-day SMA at open of next bar.
The trading model is very simple and attempts to fade strong bullish moves when the overall market sentiment is bearish. By only taking trades when the market is below its 200-day SMA we are ensuring bears are in control. We then attempt to sell into short-term bullish strength as defined by four days of consecutive market advances.
Below is a screenshot showing example trades on the S&P Cash Index. Click the image for a larger view.
- Starting account size of $100,000.
- Dates tested are from 2000 through September 31, 2016.
- The number of shares traded will be based on volatility estimation and risking no more than $2,000 per trade.
- Volatility is estimated with a five times 20-day ATR calculation. This is done to normalize the amount of risk per trade.
- The P&L is not accumulated to the starting equity.
- There are no deductions for commissions and slippage.
- There are no stops.
Here is the position sizing formula used:
Shares = $2,000 per trade / 5 * ATR(20) * Big_Point_Value )
At first galance this is not very impressive. With only 27 trades since 200 we only generate 3.51% return on our capital. Of course the market bias is up (trading above the 200-day SMA), so most of the time this strategy is not actively looking for trades. But even when we are looking for trades during those bear markets, this method is not capturing enough profit to make it worth pursuing. This is a similar result I wrote about in this article, “The Death Cross – What You Need To Know.“
While I don’t expect much change, let’s take a look at trading the ETF, SPY.
Not much change. What about the futures market? I’ll trade only one contract.
The largest losing trade on Emini was a $2,425 trade. The largest drawdown was $4,325.
Double Seven With Shorting
While we have determined that this shorting method is not that great, for fun let’s add it to Larry Connors’ long trading strategy we explored last week called Double Seven. I simply updated the TradeStation strategy code from the previous article to take trades during a bull and bear market. During a bull market the Double Seven strategy will be actively taking trades while during a bear market the Connors Simple Shorting strategy will be taking trades. Below are the results of combining these two strategies into a single system.
I’m trading the futures simple because it’s so easy to both short and go long with only one symbol. Since I’m trading futures, I removed the position sizing algorithm to normalize the number of contracts vs volatility. Instead, the strategy will simply buy one contract per trade. A deduction of $30 per round trip was deducted for slippage and commissions.
The performance chart below compares the Long Only system with new combined Long/Short system.
The Double Seven Strategy with the shorting component does slightly improve the results of the long only Double Seven strategy. Combining these to strategies produce a trading model which changes how it trades based upon a long-term bull/bear market regime.
It’s interesting to note that the book these strategies were created with were was published in 2009. Thus, all the data after that year is out-of-sample data.
Is this system tradable with real money as is? Not yet! I think this has potential but remember, there are no stops. With a little work on your part, you could trade something very similar to whats presented here. Also keep in mind profits are not reinvested during the tests performed above. If you reinvest your profits while and/or increase your risk per trade, your returns will be greater.
Get The Book
Larry Connors Shorting Strategy (TradeStation ELD)
Larry Connors Shorting Strategy (Text file)
Double Seven Strategy With Shorting (TradeStation ELD)
Double Seven Strategy With Shorting (Text file)
Double Seven Strategy With Shorting WorkSpace (TradeStation TWS)