Seasonal Strategies Built The Right Way

Many commodities, and even some individual stocks or stock groups, have recurring fundamental factors that affect their prices. These forcescan be seen by analyzing a market by day of week, day of month, or day of year. This is called seasonal trading. Almost everyone who did seasonal analysis back in the 1990’s made a big mistake. […]

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Using Metals to Trade Bonds

Sometimes things in the financial markets are pretty obvious if one is willing to see them.  Despite all of the angst that has been exhausted since July of 2016 – when the S&P 500 Index broke out to a new all-time high – regarding the 2016 election, the economy, interest rates and the “ultimate” effect […]

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Market Seasonality Study

With October over I thought it would be a good idea to review our Market Seasonality Study.  Back on May of this year, we closed a seasonality trade in anticipation for a traditional weak period of the stock index markets. That is, the months of May, June, July, August, September and October. So what did the […]

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ARIMA/GARCH – Straight Out of the Lab to the Trading Scene

Arima/Garch hybrid model is one of the hottest area of research for both time series forecasting as well as modeling markets. I have spent over a year working with this methodology. Large Institutional Traders and Hedge funds are researching methods like this. In my opinion, your days are numbers as a trader if you don’t […]

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Going Live With Automation

Going live with an automated strategy is one of the coolest, but also scariest things you can do in trading. Here you are letting a computer trade with your hard earned money. Theoretically, the computer makes ALL the buying and selling decisions except for rollover trades. Many people simply can’t do it – the stress […]

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Finding Out What Works, And What Doesn’t Work – Part II

In Part 1 of this series, found here, I ran a simple study of a trading system, in order to look at some of the common components (such as end of day closes, short versus long bar periods) that many system developers add to their trading system. Could some of these strategy building blocks be […]

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System Performance and Confidence Interval

When you review the performance of a trading model, how do you know it’s worth trading for? How do you know it’s the right system for you? How confident are you that it will continue to profit in the future? When it comes to evaluating your trading model there are many factors to take into […]

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