Category Archives for System Development

Testing The Ivy-10 Portfolio Ranking Score

It’s been just about six months since I’ve had an Ivy-10 Portfolio update. In this article I want to give a performance update for the Ivy-10 portfolio, answer a reader’s question and test the robustness of the the relative strength score. If you will recall, the Ivy-10 Portfolio ranks our ETFs based on a relative strength calculation. Well, […]

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How To Identify Algorithmic Trading Strategies

In this article I want to introduce you to the methods by which I myself identify profitable algorithmic trading strategies. Our goal today is to understand in detail how to find, evaluate and select such systems. I’ll explain how identifying strategies is as much about personal preference as it is about strategy performance, how to […]

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Robustness of Algorithmic Trading Systems (That Work)

This is the first of a series of articles that will discuss in depth the topic of algorithmic trading systems for retail investors with particular attention to: optimization and curve fitting, market selection, backtesting, walk-forward testing, portfolio creation, intraday algorithmic trading, and so forth. In this first article we will discuss how to verify if […]

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Hedging a $500k Portfolio With Optimal Puts

A reader recently emailed me, asking how he could hedge a “typical $500k mutual fund portfolio”. I’m going to walk through a step-by-step example of doing that in this post. Step One: Choose A Proxy Exchange-Traded Fund If you own a portfolio of stocks or stock funds, you can hedge that portfolio against market risk […]

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Testing The Ivy 10 Trading System

Testing the Ivy 10 Trading System Click To Tweet The Ivy Portfolio article posted several weeks back resulted in a lot of good discussions. The main thrust of many criticisms of the Ivy Portfolio came down to curve fitting. Was the Ivy Portfolio curve fitted to produce such great results? There was some question on […]

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Bulkowski’s Position Sizing

Position Sizing Background For most of my investing career, I used a fixed dollar amount for money management when buying stocks. At the beginning, it was $2,000. That bought me 100 shares of a $20 stock. I thought that’s the method that everyone used. As I learned about the stock market, I knew that there […]

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Measuring Success: Key Performance Metrics

When you see the performance of a trading system, how do you know it’s good? How do you know it’s the right system for you? Many people simply look at the net profit assuming the system with the more profit must be the better system. This is often far from a good idea. When comparing trading systems during […]

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Building A Better Trend Filter

In this article I will create a trend filter (also known as market mode filter or regime filter) that is adaptable to volatility and utilizes some of the basic principles of hysteresis to reduce false signals (whipsaws). As you may know, I often will use the 200-period simple moving average (200-SMA) to determine when a […]

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System Optimization With Expectancy

In a recent article called Rank Your Trading System With Expectancy Score I discussed the concept of expectancy and expectancy score and how they can be used to help evaluate and compare the profitability of trading systems. In this article I’m going to provide some EasyLanguage code that will help you compute these values for a trading […]

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Rank Your Trading System With Expectancy Score

In a previous article called “System Performance and Confidence Interval“, I showed how a statistical method could be used to analyze historical trading results to give us an idea if the system would likely fail in the future. In this article I would like to introduce a mathematical formula which can be applied to any […]

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