Category Archives for System Development

Is The Christmas Season Bullish For U.S. Markets?

With Christmas just a few days  away , I thought it would be interesting to see how the S&P behaves in the days just before Christmas. Do the days just before this holiday tend to be bullish, bearish, or neutral? To test the market behavior just before the Christmas holiday I will use the S&P Cash index […]

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Broken Strategy or Market Change: Investigating Underperformance

Broken Strategy

I recently had someone email me about the performance of a strategy I created back in late 2005/early 2006 and traded for a few years. I remember the strategy being a daily mean reversion set up with an intraday pullback entry. I figured it probably had not done well over the last decade. I stopped […]

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Finding Out What Works, And What Doesn’t Work

Many traders who try system trading have previously had difficulty at discretionary or manual trading. Most of these folks eventually recognize the benefit of trading a system with well defined rules – a system that has performed well in the past. It is nice to know a trading approach has historically worked, but as with […]

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Trading The Equity Curve & Beyond

Some trading systems have prolonged periods of winning or losing trades. Long winning streaks followed by a prolonged period of drawdown.  Wouldn’t it be nice if you could minimize those long drawdown periods?Here is one tip that might help you do that. Try applying a simple moving average to your trading system’s equity curve. Then, […]

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Getting Started with Neural Networks for Algorithmic Trading

If you’re interested in using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for algorithmic trading, but don’t know where to start, then this article is for you. Normally if you want to learn about neural networks, you need to be reasonably well versed in matrix and vector operations – the world of linear algebra. This article is different. I’ve attempted to provide […]

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Secret Weapon of Stock & ETF System Development

This is the second article in a two-part series where I discuss the top three pitfalls when backtesting Stock & ETF trading systems. In the first article, The Top Three Pitfalls of Stock and ETF System Development, I highlighted the top three issues system developers face. In this article, I’m going to show you how […]

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Simulation: Beyond Backtesting

beyond backtesting

One problem with traditional backtesting is that it relies on the presupposition that there are repeating predictive patterns in the market. In fact, most trading methodologies rely on this assumption. And yet we know the disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future results. And yet backtesting largely assumes that the future will be […]

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Why I Prefer Trailing Stops

Whether you trade stocks, bonds, Forex, commodities, or other financial instruments, or whether you are short-term, intermediate, or long-term trader I am sure you will agree with the next sentence – “Being in sync with the market is vital for success“. It applies for both automated and discretionary investors. In this article, I will share […]

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The Top Three Pitfalls of Stock And ETF System Development

During my nearly 25 years of experience in the trading business, I have talked to many traders about system development. Futures trading systems and back-adjusted contacts are fairly well understood. Recent issues with the pits closing and markets being only electronic have created some issues but it’s still relatively straight forward to design a trading […]

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A Complementary Approach To Trading Technical Indicators

In the October issue of Futures magazine, author Jean Folger discusses an important aspect in selecting two or more indicators when developing a trading system. While I don’t recommend simply combining indicators to create a trading system, and I don’t think that’s what Folger is suggesting either, when there comes a time to introduce two or more technical indicators to […]

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