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Category Archives for Market Studies

Seasonality in the Bond Market? You Bet!

For those who are willing to see it, there is strong evidence that reasonably persistent seasonal trends exist in the stock market (see here, here, and here). But what about the bond market? Do seasonal trends exist there? Consider the following and decide for yourself. Junk vs. GNMA “Junk” bonds (more tactfully referred to as […]

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Market Seasonality Study

May is just about over and our seasonality indicator  recently exited a long position on May 18, 2017. This turned our Seasonality Bias, found on our State of U.S. Markets webpage, from green to red. At this time two of  the three indicators are red (Short-Term Trend and Seasonality Bias) which warns of possible weakness over the coming weeks […]

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The Christmas Strategy Remains Bullish

With Christmas about four weeks away, I thought it would be interesting to see how the S&P behaves in the days just before Christmas. Do the days just before this holiday tend to be bullish, bearish, or neutral? To test the market behavior just before the Christmas holiday I will use the S&P Cash index back […]

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