All posts by Jeff Swanson

Is The Christmas Season Bullish For U.S. Markets?

With the Christmas season upon us, I thought it would be interesting to review how the S&P behaves in the days just before Christmas. Do the days just before this holiday tend to be bullish, bearish, or neutral?  To test the market behavior just before the Christmas holiday I will use the S&P Cash index back […]

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Seasonality S&P Market Session

In a recent article, Seasonality Study, I took a look at the classic seasonality effect as seen in the U.S. markets. Briefly recapping that article, it shows that the trading days between November through May appear to hold significant gains in the market while the trading days between June and October hold far less profit. In this article I […]

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Market Seasonality Study

With October over I thought it would be a good idea to review our Market Seasonality Study.  Back on May of this year, we closed a seasonality trade in anticipation for a traditional weak period of the stock index markets. That is, the months of May, June, July, August, September and October. So what did the […]

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Testing Market Regime Indicators

Often when designing a system it’s important to keep the big picture in mind. What is the overall market doing? The most simple way to accomplish this is to break the market into two regimes: bullish and bearish. We are all aware that price action is a mirror of human psychology of market participants, therefore […]

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System Performance and Confidence Interval

When you review the performance of a trading model, how do you know it’s worth trading for? How do you know it’s the right system for you? How confident are you that it will continue to profit in the future? When it comes to evaluating your trading model there are many factors to take into […]

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The Bullish Outside Month

I came across an article over at the blog, Jay On The Markets, that talked about applying a bullish outside indicator on a monthly chart. The article I was reading is entitled, “One Sign That the Bull May Still Have Legs​”. In this article Jay talks about the incredible run the U.S. broad market has experienced […]

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Battle of the Oscillators…Round 2

Oscillator

In a past article, Predictive Indicators written by John Ehlers, he highlighted a unique indicator used to time market cycles. This indicator is a heavily modified Stochastic Oscillator and was demonstrated on the S&P. In this article, I want to put John’s Oscillator to the test by comparing it to another popular indicator Backtesting Environment for […]

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Down Days Trading Model

I’ve written a lot about the 2-period RSI indicator popularized by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. This indicator highlights significant pullbacks which can often be buying opportunities within major market indexes like the S&P.  Pullbacks in the market are a result of the market closing down. That means, today’s close is lower than the open. […]

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Best Times To Day Trade

TimingMoney

If you are developing a trading system to trade intraday charts you might want to know when are the best times to day trade. This article is aimed at those who enjoy opening and closing a trade within a day. That is, those of you who are day traders that end the day with your […]

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Risk-Based Position Sizing

Let’s start with a thought experiment. Let’s say we have two traders who are each given identical trading systems to execute on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY).  Because both systems are identical copies of an automated trading system, both trading systems generate the same buy/sell signals, use identical stop loss and trailing stop parameters.  These two […]

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